Form Analysis by Ryan Phelan
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: FOLLOWTHEACE (4) is a high quality but lightly raced 7yo who resumed off a long break last time out. He burned off the arm with no luck whatsoever with his map and found the line quite well under the circumstances. A much more positive map and fitness suits well here.
BIG SLEDGE HAMMER (6) races best from the front row, where he was able to win three back when finding the lead. He was good subsequently in similar class when sitting parked. THE STEEL DRAGON (7) was superbly driven to win last time out. This map presents as tricky, but with the right tempo has a great turn of foot. OZZIE CORKA (3) can mix his form a little but does show good gate speed and his best has him in the mix.
SELECTIONS: FOLLOWTHEACE (4), BIG SLEDGE HAMMER (6), THE STEEL DRAGON (7), OZZIE CORKA (3)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: ROLINGINTHEDEEP (3) has been a revelation this season winning 4 from 4, kept to short trips and running very quick times for a horse progressing through the grades. Herbertson sticks with him and whilst he’s no guarantee to be waved on to the front, he can still prove too fast for them.
ODIN (4) is a very quick beginner and could cross them all at the start here. He didn’t have much luck at all last time out and his runs this season have been good. He looks the clear danger. BLAKE BOLAC (9) has underperformed, to be fair, in his two runs back, but I feel inclined to forgive him in a suitable race with added fitness, because his best is good enough. ALWAYS BE BLAKEY (8) his stablemate, was good here last week from the same draw, but back in trip will need a bit of luck to repeat that.
BACK: ROLINGINTHEDEEP (3) – 2 units (win) - ROLINGINTHEDEEP (3) & ODIN (4) – 1 unit (quinella)
SELECTIONS: ROLINGINTHEDEEP (3), ODIN (4), BLAKE BOLAC (9), ALWAYS BE BLAKEY (8)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: OUR ULTIMATE GRACY (3) has been excellent in her two runs for Kerryn Manning, leading all the way in both and running decent time. She’s a very quick beginner and her mares allowance affords her a favourable draw and likely control without too much pressure for her to see out a strong 2240m.
MONTANA PRIDE (8) continues to be well placed and has been consistent as a result. He has a difficult draw to overcome, but if the breaks arrive, he will flash late. BRINGUSJOY (2) gets back to a suitable race, performing well against some tough opposition of late and gets a soft draw. IN AN IDEAL WORLD (9) was terrific last campaign and by his standards strikes a suitable race, but I wasn’t enamoured with his trial and he may need this.
BACK: OUR ULTIMATE GRACY (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: OUR ULTIMATE GRACY (3), MONTANA PRIDE (8), BRINGUSJOY (2), IN AN IDEAL WORLD (9)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: KYVALLEY MAVEN (6) has found some good form in this grade his past couple, narrowly going down to main rival Quirky Character last week, but now gets a more favourable map. He can press forward over the longer trip, and if he finds the pegs from Mega Spur will take plenty of catching.
QUIRKY CHARACTER (8) can either trail MEGA SPUR (1) who is a very quick beginner and is fitter or come off the pegs. Those tactics will go a long way to who presents as the main danger. EL RESAMO (7) has a tricky draw and normally races better over the shorter trip, but he’s honest.
BACK: KYVALLEY MAVEN (6) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: KYVALLEY MAVEN (6), QUIRKY CHARECTER (8), MEGA SPUR (1), EL RESAMO (7)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (7) looks expertly placed here dropping well back in grade courtesy of the mare’s allowance. Her runs this preparation have been much better than her numerical form may suggest, and she has only a small field to overcome if she comes with one final burst. She looks the best of the night.
HES NO ROMEO (1) has the same draw but goes up in trip now and should map behind the leader here to be strong along the sprint lane. ATA RANGI (5) has been ultra consistent this preparation, and his versatility helps here with an uncertain map. FRUGAL FARE (3) hasn’t had a front row draw for a while to use his early gate speed, so he’s open to improvement with the right trip.
BACK: ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (7) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (7), HES NO ROMEO (1), ATA RANGI (5), FRUGAL FARE (3)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: JILLIBY NITRO (3) has been sneaky-good for the past couple of months, racing in elite company and often having no luck. He sat parked here in quick time last week and was still trying on the line. He can press forward here and get a better position at good value in a high-quality contest.
MIKI TO SUCCESS (7) is another who has been immense in the top-flight, including a terrific 4th in the A G Hunter Cup. He has a tough draw to overcome, but he’s a classy type. SMOKEN ACE (5) has been perfect his past few and running scintillating time in the process. He takes another step here, but his form is impossible to ignore. GHOST OF TIME (2) is the quickest horse off the front and is going well, but with the step up likely to take a sit on one of the dangers.
SELECTIONS: JILLIBY NITRO (3), MIKI TO SUCCESS (7), SMOKEN ACE (5), GHOST OF TIME (2)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: KEAYANG GYPSY (6) could represent better value than her stablemate Crusher Clyde here and you can make several cases why. She’s been at this level for longer, she got it wrong last week but looked a good thing beaten and under stand conditions where she got it wrong four back, she had to give him 10 metres.
CRUSHER CLYDE (7) has quickly progressed to this level; however, he was a little green last week wanting to hang. I think there’s little between them. AVANT GUARD (4) has been running quite well up in grade, and this looks suitable for him to be competitive. TICTOK (3) led and had her chance last week, but her map advantage gives her claims.
SELECTIONS: KEAYANG GYPSY (6), CRUSHER CLYDE (7), AVANT GUARD (4), TICTOK (3)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: RAVISHING RUBY (3) arrives at the powerful Emma Stewart barn, and there’s already a lot to like judging by her recent trial where she raced against some much higher credentialled horses and acquitted herself well. She showed good speed there, so will lead these and be hard to run past.
MISTER AMERICANO (6) presents as the logical danger based on form. He’s been racing in tougher grade overall. ASMILEANDAWINX (1) draws softly to be an exotic player, but a win would surprise. POPCORNFRIDAY (8) will also sit on the peg line in what should be a quick last lap to fill a place.
SELECTIONS: RAVISHING RUBY (3), MISTER AMERICANO (6), ASMILEANDAWINX (1), POPCORNFRIDAY (8)
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