Race 1
The second heat of the Tasmanian Cup brings together an even group of locals, and surprisingly no mainland visitors. MAEBEE (1) was too good in the Devonport Cup last start when sitting on the back of HORATIUS SPECULO (5) and proved superior late. From the pole draw he looks set to enjoy another economical run and will take plenty of beating. HORATIUS SPECULO (5) was very good when driven with cover last start, and a similar approach here would see him charging late again. GLENLEDI ELVIS (6) is a stablemate of the pole marker and may use his sharp gate speed to cross early, which would enhance his chances largely. THE SHALLOWS (3) and CUSTOM HARLEY (7) have had little luck in recent outings and will be hoping for genuine tempo to bring them into the race, whilst the talented DE JOEY (2) resumes from a spell and could upset these at his best.
Selections MAEBEE (1), HORATIUS SPECULO (5), GLENLEDI ELVIS (6), THE SHALLOWS (3)
Staking Strategy: Happy to have an each-way play on GLENLEDI ELVIS (6) at the value. 1 unit each-way – GLENLEDI ELVIS (6)
Race 2
A maiden over the mile brings together a small field where early tempo will be crucial. MY BEAUTIFUL LIFE (4) had no luck last start and prior to that overdid it when leading in a fast-run affair. She looks capable of finding the front here and is worth another chance for those prepared to stick solid after recent well-supported efforts. FANCY ANOTHER (7) was quite good last start when making ground from out wide and with genuine speed throughout, she can be looming late. FIVEFORTY (3) was attacked throughout at Burnie first up for the Langley stable and battled on gamely. With a more economical run in transit, he can be in the finish. ALBY PRIDDY (5) and SPORTS WATCHER (6) are consistent maidens with early speed, though they may be driven with cover this time.
Selections MY BEAUTIFUL LIFE (4), FANCY ANOTHER (7), FIVEFORTY (3), ALBY PRIDDY (5)
Staking Strategy: FIVEFORTY (3) if he can cross to the pegs before relinquishing the front to the (4), he should get his chance to break through. 2 unit win – FIVEFORTY (3)
Race 3
A stand start over the middle distance where GOODTIME OSCAR (6) will be chasing his seventh win from his past eight starts. He was super impressive last time when unsuccessfully contesting the lead before sitting parked throughout still proved far too strong late and this does not look any harder. ROCKS ROY (7) is an ever-consistent 13-year-old who was again seen making good ground late last start and a similar effort would see him in the finish. MAJOR DAVVIN (1) could be the improver off the front mark and if able to step cleanly and find the lead, he may give them something to catch. SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (2) led and ran slick time in a similar event three starts ago, giving those off the back marks no chance, and will be looking to replicate that pattern. The remainder of the field are evenly matched and searching for a win, though DENNY (8) could be one charging home late if he begins cleanly.
Selections GOODTIME OSCAR (6), ROCKS ROY (7), MAJOR DAVVIN (1), SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (2)
Staking Strategy: He’s not a big fan of winning, but ROCKS ROY(7) is worth a small play at the value in another even field. 1 unit win – ROCKS ROY (7)
Race 4
KEAYANG GALLIANO (1) broke through for a well-deserved win in the state last start and from the pole, looks to have enough speed to hold up and give them something to chase. Most of the front row are utilising the mares’ concession claim to gain a start in this race, including ANGELSHAVTIME (6) and DONE WELL (5), both of whom have put wins together recently when afforded economical runs in transit. MY BAD (2) again draws to get a soft trip and should be finishing in the first four, while those off the back row will be relying on genuine tempo throughout to bring them into play, including KENYA (11).
Selections KEAYANG GALLIANO (1), ANGELSHAVTIME (6), DONE WELL (5), MY BAD (2)
Staking Strategy: KEAYANG GALLIANO (1) gets her chance to lead and will be hard to run down, where I don’t see a whole lot of mid-race pressure at her. 3 unit win – KEAYANG GALLIANO (1)
Race 5
A mile event for the lower grade horses where there appears to be solid early speed engaged across the front row. IDEN KAMIKAZE (6) will drift back again from the draw, where he made no ground last start after being caught wide on the final bend. With a more economical run in transit, he can be charging home late. DREAM MELODY (8) produced an improved effort last start with a pegs run and will be hoping STEPUPNDANCE (1) can show her customary gate speed to allow both to settle on speed. JUST LIKA DREAM (2) broke through at start nineteen last time and has previously placed numerously from back in the field against maiden opposition, which their form has stood up well since , so she looks well placed from the favourable draw. IDEN REGAL WAVE (5) has had a stable change and has shown good gate speed and promise at times, while TALK IS CHEAP (9) and QUEENOFDANCE (10) receive soft trailing draws and will be looking for economical runs to feature late.
Selections JUST LIKA DREAM (2), IDEN KAMIKAZE (6), STEPUPNDANCE (1), DREAM MELODY (8)
Staking Strategy: They will both need some luck to go their way. However, DREAM MELODY (8) and LALIBELA (11) look slight overs for this low-class race. 1 unit win & 2 unit place – DREAM MELODY (8), 0.5 unit win & 1 unit place – LALIBELA (11)
Race 6
The lowest class race of the night where GUENEVERES MADONNA (3) will be looking to break through after a handy effort when a well-backed favourite first up for the stable last start. She should strip fitter for that run and gets her chance in this company. JAY MILLER (4) may be used off the gate from the favourable draw and could be a sharp improver on recent form, having shown ability in the past good enough to win a race of this nature. DEBT TILL WE PART (6) will again be relying on genuine speed throughout to allow him to run home strongly, which is his usual pattern. BARBETTE (2) has been going better than her form suggests and from the soft draw could represent value. In a field of this depth, it would be no surprise to see any of this field salute at odds.
Selections GUENEVERES MADONNA (3), JAY MILLER (4), DEBT TILL WE PART (6), BARBETTE (2)
Staking Strategy: GUENEVERES MADONNA (3) really gets her chance to get back in the winner’s circle here. However, also a small saver on DEBT TILL WE PART (6), who looks the one likely to roll her. 4 unit win –GUENEVERES MADONNA (3), 1 unit win – DEBT TILL WE PART (6)
Race 7
OH NO NEVER AGAIN (4) looks capable of finding the front again and replicating his last start win, where he scored comfortably by ten metres in handy time for this grade. If he controls the tempo again, he will be hard to run down. ROLLWITHARTY (3) had to work outside the leader again in a solidly run first half last start but battled on gamely, so should be prominent again with a similar trip. HARRYS DEAL (5) returned to form in that same event, making strong ground from back in the field to finish second, and another where genuine tempo would enhance his chances. TWILIGHT BEACH (8) utilises the mares’ claim to gain a start in this class of race and will be dangerous late if able to secure clear running at the right time.
Selections OH NO NEVER AGAIN (4), ROLLWITHARTY (3), HARRYS DEAL (5), TWILIGHT BEACH (8)
Staking Strategy: The favourites are rock bottom prices for mine, so happy to have an each-way bet on TWILIGHT BEACH (8) who should get a cushy 3 pegs run and drops in class slightly against these. 1 unit win & 2 unit place – TWILIGHT BEACH (8)
