Form Analysis by Tim O'Connor

 

Race 1

OVERVIEW: REALLY REALLY (10) has had just 16 starts as a seven-year-old and hasn’t been seen at the races since May 2024, but looks set to run a good race first-up for the Freddy Taiba stable after a strong hit-out at the Ballarat trials last week. He led up and dashed home a 57.6 last half to hold off the handy Emma Stewart runner Meteor Moth, who is a winner of eight races from 13 starts. Never easy from outside the back row at Cranbourne, but there looks some speed off the front line that could assist the run-on horses and his form when last racing is strong for a race like this. VINCHESKA (5) crossed SPUN SILVER (1) at Kilmore last time out then boxed on to beat her home, and ran a good race for second at Maryborough before that. Both those horses are certainly in the mix, as are the Adam Stephens stablemates WINGATE GUY (8) – who won at Terang on Monday – and HOME AND DRY (3), who hit the front and led until the shadows of the post at Melton last Friday. None of the others would really shock, but appear more outside chances.

BACK: REALLY REALLY (10) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: REALLY REALLY (10), VINCHESKA (5), WINGATE GUY (8), SPUN SILVER (1)

Race 2

OVERVIEW: OOH AH LISTAH (3) hasn’t won since way back in November 2024, but looks very close based on his recent form at Melton. He contested a much, much stronger race than this last Friday, and while he did have the luxury of a peg-line run, was beaten just 2.4m into second by the smart Soho Darknstormy in quick time with some nice horses in behind him. Two runs earlier, he came with a searching three-wide burst and chased Handler into second. LAMBRO MACH (7) has taken time to hit his straps for new connections, but ran a cracking race for third in his pursuit of a third-straight win last week at Melton. He was three wide most of the last lap and only got tired late. He will run well despite another bad draw. LILSTREPO (4) is in great form for Alex Ashwood, while fast beginner IM BUTTER BLUE (1), ROLINGINTHEDEEP (2), I OF THE HURRIKANE (5) and KATUNGA EXPRESS (6) all have genuine claims.

BACK: OOH AH LISTAH (3) – 1 unit (each-way)

SELECTIONS: OOH AH LISTAH (3), LAMBRO MACH (7), LILSTREPO (4), IM BUTTER BLUE (1)

Race 3

OVERVIEW: TWISTING BY (9) came with a brilliant looping three-wide run to win the Elmore Pacing Cup at Bendigo last time out, beating TRIPLE ROCK SAINT (3) and TEN DA TOUCH (4) in the process. He’s a one-dimensional pacer who often drifts back and savages the line, so he just needs the tempo on to be a factor here. And I fancy that will be the case with the fast-beginning GHOST OF TIME (6) drawn out wide off the front line. He makes his return to the races after a three-start campaign that ended with a couple of poor runs at Melton. He was given a decent hit-out at the trials recently and beat home subsequent winner Soho Darknstormy there, so looks ready to roll. He has good gate speed and is likely to power forward in a bid to find the front. Something like his hard-working seventh, beaten just 7.8m by Yambukian in FFA grade during July, might win this. BROWNIESATMIDNIGHT (5) was sensational when sitting parked and winning at Melton last Friday in a slick last half, while there’s a big watch on Jason Grimson’s New Zealand acquisition MAJOR ART (1), who is first-up for the stable without a public trial.

SELECTIONS: TWISTING BY (9), GHOST OF TIME (6), BROWNIESATMIDNIGHT (5), MAJOR ART (1)

Race 4

OVERVIEW: CAPTAINS MISTRESS (5) is a very, very exciting New Zealand mare that has blown her rivals away in two starts at Menangle since joining the Jason Grimson stable. She’s a multiple Group 1 winner in her home country and was a brave third in the Queensland Oaks when trained by Grant Dixon in 2025. She looks to have so much upside and will be awfully hard to beat. Six of these horses clashed in The Make Mine Cullen at Ballarat last weekend, where STENO (6) got the perfect trip and powered home late on the back of a slick tempo to tip out stablemate EYE KEEP SMILING (7). There’s not much between those two and they’ll give this a great shake. SWEETNIKKILOU (2) was attacked for the top at Ballarat by LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (3), but I’m anticipating the early lead might be easier to find this time around. She can bounce back without surprising based off her prior form, which included the best last quarter in the Bendigo Pacing Cup behind Bulletproof Boy.

BACK: SWEETNIKKILOU (2) – 2 units (place)

SELECTIONS: CAPTAINS MISTRESS (5), SWEETNIKKILOU (2), EYE KEEP SMILING (7), STENO (6)

Race 5

OVERVIEW: Brilliant edition of the 4YO & 5YO Championship, where most of these runners could win with the right trip. The early leader looks difficult to predict, with a number of horses likely to press forward and look for the pegs. HES NO ROMEO (4) probably has the best early speed but would likely take cover, so the charge might continue for some time. While unsure where he’ll end up in transit, I’m with GOLDEN TRIBE (5) at a price. He was incredible coming three and four wide from last at the bell to run third behind HES NO ROMEO (4) with a race-fastest last half of 54.35 at Shepparton two weeks ago. The handy WAR DAN BUDDY (10) went awfully close to winning the Vicbred Super Series Final in late November and was very good at the trials recently for this first-up assignment, FORTY LOVE (8) won the Hamilton Pacing Cup then ran past the star Kingman to finish third behind Leap To Fame in last weekend’s Ballarat Pacing Cup, while MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (7) and NSW raider DEMON BLUE (3) look the other leading contenders.

BACK: GOLDEN TRIBE (5) – 1 unit (each-way)

SELECTIONS: GOLDEN TRIBE (5), WAR DAN BUDDY (10), FORTY LOVE (8), MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (7)

Race 6

OVERVIEW: What an incredible Cranbourne Gold Cup this is, with four genuine stars of the sport set to do battle. The barrier draw appears to have favoured KINGMAN (1), who is expected to be able to lead and dictate this contest from the front. He led and beat LEAP TO FAME (4) at Shepparton before chasing the Queensland champ home for fourth at Ballarat last weekend. Given the fence advantage at Cranbourne, I’ll side with Luke McCarthy’s charge to go all the way. LEAP TO FAME (4) is shooting for three-straight wins in this race and was at his brilliant best from the front last weekend. Given recent battles, it’s hard to see him sitting parked to beat KINGMAN (1), but he might be able to get one-one cover here on the back of the brilliant SWAYZEE (7), who is tipped to push forward and take up a position outside the leader. He was enormous beating Don Hugo at Goulburn recently and won easily at Menangle on January 17. If the tempo is hot, BULLETPROOF BOY (2) could become a real threat, particularly if James Herbertson drops to the fence behind KINGMAN (1) early. What a race!

SELECTIONS: KINGMAN (1), LEAP TO FAME (4), BULLETPROOF BOY (2), SWAYZEE (7)

Race 7

OVERVIEW: The mighty KEAYANG ZAHARA (4) will likely take another step towards a $500,000 bonus for any trotter that can win four legs of the Summer of Glory carnival, including the Great Southern Star Final on February 14. She took her career record to 22 wins from 23 starts with a track record success in the Ballarat Trotters Cup last weekend, and is expected to glide to the front and claim this feature in style. ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (2) fired across to lead before handing up at Ballarat, and that’s a map scenario that looks likely again. The comeback mare is racing really well and is fancied for second. IM BOBBY (5) thrashed his rivals in the Shepparton Trotters Cup and chased hard from a difficult back row draw for fourth at Ballarat. He’s a brilliant trotter in his own right and should fill one of the placings, with the first-up LOVEMETO (3) next pick.

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG ZAHARA (4), ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (2), IM BOBBY (5), LOVEMETO (3)

Race 8

OVERVIEW: MONTANA PRIDE (1) is the veteran of the field with 123 starts to his name, but he’s racing in superb form of late and gets the perfect draw to attempt leading all the way in this 0/15k-win contest. All of his recent runs have been great, including last time out at Melton when he settled four back the pegs and flashed home late to only be beaten 5.3m by Momentum Shift. He led and won in good style prior to that at Geelong and I fancy he can do it again here. ROYAL APPOINTMENT (9) was super from a hopeless position in the Elmore Pacing Cup and led and beat all but the handy Pesci prior to that, so can definitely win this. LUVA SCRAP (7) was outclassed in the recent Hamilton Pacing Cup, but won well prior at Melton and was a solid third behind Browniesatmidnight and Timbimboo last Friday, while the consistent STEEL RULER (8) can figure as can FIANO (5) should Alex Ashwood cross his rivals at the start.

BACK: MONTANA PRIDE (1) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: MONTANA PRIDE (1), ROYAL APPOINTMENT (9), LUVA SCRAP (7), STEEL RULER (8)

Race 9

OVERVIEW: The likely early speed battle could be telling here, with IMPERIAL COMMAND (6) (noting a small ownership share) expected to charge the gate in a bid to cross favourite JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (2), who is looking to continue her picket fence. JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (2) is favoured given she will be either in front or leader’s back, and is just in great form at the moment. IMPERIAL COMMAND (6) is a huge chance should he cross to the fence. He chased home the megastar Keayang Zahara last weekend on the back of a little setback and should be better for the run. His best is good enough in this grade. GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (5) was too far back in the run last weekend but his form prior is very good, stablemate REMUS PHOENIX (7) returned from a little break in good style when fifth behind Jilliby Ballerini at Ballarat and is another that will be hitting the line hard, while KEAYANG GUCCI (1) can figure in the placings given her nice peg-line draw.

SELECTIONS: JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (2), IMPERIAL COMMAND (7), KEAYANG GUCCI (1), GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (5)

 

 

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