Form Analysis by Tim O'Connor

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Race 1

OVERVIEW: MY BETTOR HALF (3) might have only won narrowly in her cross-border run at Globe Derby in late November, but the effort was full of merit in a slick last half sitting parked with a big margin back to third. She was very competitive in the Vicbred Super Series prior to that and rates as a strong chance in this mares’ event. Despite tipping the Emma Stewart runner, don’t discount BRINGSUSJOY (1), who powered through the line after being held up at Kilmore last time out and was probably unlucky not to win. She was also blocked for a run prior to that at Melton and looks a great winning hope. The speedy OUR ROKU (2) looks the likely early leader and won well on NYE, while RUBY WINGATE (8) and CHIRRIPO (4) head the other chances but would need luck.

SELECTIONS: MY BETTOR HALF (3), BRINGSUSJOY (1), OUR ROKU (2), RUBY WINGATE (8)

Race 2

OVERVIEW: CO CAPTAIN (9) has been very impressive in his two runner-up placings to date, including a narrow miss in a fast 55.1 last half behind the smart Signature Look at Maryborough last time. This really does look his race from the nice back row draw. TRYX VIXEN (6) is a 17-start maiden, but she’s very ready to win and might prove hard to catch if she can power to the front. Her last three starts have been so brave with excuses, and she’d be clearly on top without CO CAPTAIN (9) in the race. PET WOLF (2) probably should have won on debut at Melton on NYE, but lacked the ringcraft, while WEONA OUR RIGHTS (8) looks to have some ability and is next best.

SELECTIONS: CO CAPTAIN (9), TRYX VIXEN (6), PET WOLF (2), WEONA OUR RIGHTS (8)

Race 3

OVERVIEW: KEAYANG GYPSY (10) looked a great chance in the Hamilton Trotters Cup, but was held up by a tiring stablemate and never really got her shot at them. She won three races in good style before that, with a picket fence ruined by her manners at Geelong and Cranbourne in between. She’s a talented type hailing from the powerhouse Lee stable and I’m very happy her way. CLAUDYS HERO (6) is a nice four-year-old having his first start for the season and was a soft winner at the trials in preparation for this. He has good gate speed and shapes as a possible leader. ALDEBARAN SUSANNE (8) led and won in good style at Geelong latest, while TICTOK (9) has lots of ability but sadly can’t be trusted at this stage. If she trotted the whole way, she’d likely be in the finish. The flying ABBIE (7) won the GV Regional Trotters Cup last weekend from the chair and heads the others.

BACK: KEAYANG GYPSY (10) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG GYPSY (10), CLAUDYS HERO (6), ALDEBARAN SUSANNE (8), TICTOK (9)

Race 4

OVERVIEW: SOHO DARKNSTORMY (6) is first-up from a break on the back of a three-year-old season that saw him join the Andy Gath stable. I really liked his latest trial when beaten into second by the smart Uniquely Ideal in a slick last half, with some handy horses in behind him. He has good scope and might be the horse on the rise that can take this race despite a wide draw with plenty of speed underneath. EARL OF PEMBROKE (10) is dropping significantly back in grade from free for all company and looks a great chance at his best, stablemate JACCKA CONNOR (8) is an opportunist who could pinch a race like this, while HITTHEROADJACK (4) was very brave second-up at Kilmore and can make his own luck up on speed as he gets towards peak fitness.

BACK: SOHO DARKNSTORMY (6) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: SOHO DARKNSTORMY (6), EARL OF PEMBROKE (10), JACCKA CONNOR (8), HITTHEROADJACK (4)

Race 5

OVERVIEW: FIRE MARSHALL (5) closed out his three-year-old season with a gallant 10th – beaten just 11.8m – in a hot Vicbred Super Series Final behind Its Confidential and resumes here aged four. That’s seriously good form for a race like this, and while he could have been more impressive in a recent trial, I’ll trust that astute trainer Kyle Marshall has him right to go. MOMENTUM SHIFT (1) hit the line hard behind Franco Novelist on Saturday night in Shepparton and draws for a good run behind likely early leader JUSJOHN (2), MONTANA PRIDE (11) is a veteran of 122 starts but is flying and won well from the front at Geelong last week, LAMBRO MACH (7) was huge scoring from last at Geelong last time and chases a hat-trick from a tough gate, while there’s a watch on RONNIE THE HAMMER (9) first-up for the Jess Tubbs yard.

BACK: FIRE MARSHALL (5) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: FIRE MARSHALL (5), MOMENTUM SHIFT (1), MONTANA PRIDE (11), LAMBRO MACH (7)

Race 6

OVERVIEW: THE ITALIAN DREAM (6) finds a lovely race to break back into the winner’s circle here. She appeared to trot a bit roughly in last weekend’s GV Regional Trotters Cup, but was only beaten 12.6m and had been racing really well before that. Her fourth to Keayang Kurki in the Group 1 Breeders Crown final reads so well for a race like this and I’m keen on her chances. KENNYWOULD (7) actually beat the aforementioned rival home last weekend and looms as a danger, SAMMY HALLER (9) came from nowhere to win his maiden last time out at Shepparton and can definitely claim a race like this, while SPIRITED LASS (11) almost always makes a mistake, but her best is well and truly up to this.

BACK: THE ITALIAN DREAM (6) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: THE ITALIAN DREAM (6), KENNYWOULD (7), SAMMY HALLER (9), SPIRITED LASS (11)

Race 7

OVERVIEW: HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (13) has his quirks, but looks to have plenty of ability and I liked his trial at Melton earlier this month in preparation for this first-up assignment. He surged around the field from last and probably would have won had he not lugged in turning for home. He caught the eye in his first campaign, and might have enough talent to win this given there looks speed off the front line to create a genuine tempo. YANKEE GAMBLER (8) tends to hit a flat spot in his races, but has the ability in this grade and might camp in behind the likely leader FOUR LONELY NIGHTS (1). HOME AND DRY (5), TREACHEROUSTIMES (6), MAJORS CREEK (10) and COLORADO GIRL (9) are all hopes, while FEEL THE REIGN (11) looks a great chance should he gain a start as emergency. He’s been surging home of late without much luck.

BACK: HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (13) – 1 unit (each-way)

SELECTIONS: HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (13), YANKEE GAMBLER (8), HOME AND DRY (5), MAJORS CREEK (10)

Race 8

OVERVIEW: Wide-open event here for the up-to-50 pacers, where I’m siding with MAXY BOMBER (10) for the Herbertson camp. He came from well back to win a similar race at Maryborough in mid-December and has put in some solid efforts since. He gets the services of the state’s top reinsman and he should run well. There’s stacks of winning chances, though. OPTIMAL (6) has run home well his last couple at Swan Hill and Charlton and could win if the breaks came his way, KALKADOON DREAMING (3) is knocking on the door despite having his chance the last two and EYE SEE AMOUR (5) is poking along solidly as well. JILLIBY SELWOOD (11) is surely getting back into a winnable grade and OUR TRUE COLOURS (9) can definitely bob up. FEEL THE REIGN (7) looks a great chance should he gain a start as emergency as he’s been surging home of late without much luck.

SELECTIONS: MAXY BOMBER (10), OPTIMAL (6), KALKADOON DREAMING (3), EYE SEE AMOUR (5)

Race 9

OVERVIEW: Noting a small ownership share in TIMBIMBOO (3) here, and he does look to have a good winning chance first-up from a break. His one run at Melton was poor, but he was found to have an issue after that and was spelled. He won a trial at Melton against some handy rivals last week and shapes as a nice hope from the front row draw. I was keen on FRANCO NOVELIST (11) at Shepparton on the back of a good Bendigo trial, and he delivered in fine style while wide through the last lap. Like Shepp, he’s the clear NR on-topper and I fancy he can win again. LUVA SCRAP (6) was outclassed in the Hamilton Pacing Cup, but had been running very well before that, while CAN BE A RUEBE (9), THE STEEL DRAGON (4), LOU WILL (5), BROWNIESATMIDNIGHT (7) and WATTLEBANK ARNIE (10) can all figure in the placings or win with the right luck.

SELECTIONS: FRANCO NOVEILIST (11), TIMBIMBOO (3), LUVA SCRAP (6), CAN BE A RUEBE (9)

 

 

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