Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Craig Rail

 

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: HOT DEAL (11) boasts the excellent record of ten wins from just nineteen starts at Mildura and he produced a big performance to win at Swan Hill last week. He is clearly the class runner of the field and will take beating. MAXY WANTS TO PLAY (10) has won at his past four attempts at Mildura and is very strong. He endured a tough run and ran a game race for fourth behind Dessie Gee at Melton last outing. SANTA CASA BEACH (9) settled in a rearward position and made ground when fifth behind HOT DEAL (11) last outing. He should be reaching his peak form after having two starts back from a break and is worth a ticket each way. MODERN GINGER (5), KEAYANG MOROCCAN (6) and LE SPARTACUS (7) are all minor place hopes in the event.

BACK: HOT DEAL (11) – 3 units (win)

SELECTIONS: HOT DEAL (11), MAXY WANTS TO PLAY (10), SANTA CASA BEACH (9), KEAYANG MOROCCAN (6)

 

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: ROYAL SAXON (1) returned to winning form at Gawler last week, where he found the lead and dominated his rivals. He is the likely leader again from the pole position and will take catching. ROOSTER PHILLIPS (7) was placed after trailing the leader at Gawler and is likely to end up being behind the leader again so he is not without a chance. SHES POPPY (8) is a speedy mare and boasts a recent victory over ROYAL SAXON (1) so she warrants respect. OUR MASTER PLAY (5) didn’t run on as expected at Swan Hill last outing but he finished off best to win at Mildura prior so he is worth another chance. WATCH THE CLOCK (2) and CRUZ WITH ROME (3) are both fast beginners and LOUIEVILLE (10) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment.

SELECTIONS: ROYAL SAXON (1), ROOSTER PHILLIPS (7), SHES POPPY (8), OUR MASTER PLAY (5)

 

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: ROBERT CROCKA (4) will appreciate a drop back in distance for this assignment and he has been maintaining a consistent form line. If anything, this race is easier than his past few performances so he should prove hard to beat. HESASTAR (10) endured a tough run and faded into ninth at Swan Hill last week but his form prior was sound so he is worth another chance. GLITZY ALL OVER (7) follows out behind the fast beginner THE TOOTH FAIRY (1) and should be finishing off nicely. CORNELIA (6) and SHALLOW POCKETS (9), which is resuming since December but was placed at a recent Mildura trial effort, are both capable of showing up without surprising.

BACK: ROBERT CROCKA (4) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: ROBERT CROCKA (4), HESASTAR (10), GLITZY ALL OVER (7), SHALLOW POCKETS (9)

 

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: APOLOGY ACCEPTED (6) is poorly drawn but finished off fast when third behind Brave Art at Swan Hill last outing. He scored at Mildura on December 03 and he should be finding the line strongly again. UNCUT GEM (9) remains a Victorian maiden but he has been close to the money at his most recent appearances so he cannot be left out of calculations. KEAYANG CRIPPA (1) enjoyed a nice trip behind the leader when third at Globe Derby on Saturday night. This race is slightly easier and he is drawn to receive a similar trail. INDIANAS SON (4) won against the easier Maiden class last outing but is worth thought again and the fast beginner IM ALRIGHT JACK (2) is capable of showing improvement from his good draw.

SELECTIONS: APOLOGY ACCEPTED (6), UNCUT GEM (9), KEAYANG CRIPPA (1), INDIANAS SON (4)

 

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: DAYSIE BROWN (8) would be better suited to being drawn on the front line but she appears to be suited against this opposition and did well after working hard in the run when second behind Robert Crocka on December 10. SUNSHINE WARRIOR (9) was able to defeat a field of similar quality two starts ago. He was beaten by a long way at his latest attempt but he is worth another chance under these conditions. BEARTASTIC WRITER (3) led out then took cover when second at Swan Hill last outing. That was his best effort for some time and a repeat performance will see him being prominent throughout again. GRENADE (5) has been short of his best form this preparation but gets his chance to improve under these conditions.

BACK: DAYSIE BROWN (8) – 1 unit each way

SELECTIONS: DAYSIE BROWN (8), SUNSHINE WARRIOR (9), BEARTASTIC WRITER (3), GRENADE (5)

 

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: MANINKY MOONSHINE (9) was returning from Tasmania when he settled in the second half of the field, was held up badly for a run and made late ground when an unlucky sixth at Kilmore. He is poorly drawn but has the ability to figure in the finish. FOXY TWO GLOVES (4) has returned to her peak form over the past two weeks with a win at Mildura followed by a close second behind the smart pacer Miki B in a mile rate of 1.53.6 at Swan Hill. She is a tough type and should give another forward showing. CLEAR LEFT (8) endured a tough run when unplaced at Charlton on Monday. His form prior against stronger opposition was sound and he should go well at his Mildura debut. FIANO (2) continues to build on her consistent record for trainer Alex Ashwood and is drawn to be prominent throughout.

SELECTIONS: MANINKY MOONSHINE (9), FOXY TWO GLOVES (4), CLEAR LEFT (8), FIANO (2)

 

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: LILSTREPO (8) is racing in peak form having not finished further back than fourth at her past twelve starts. She gained a nice trail but tried hard and missed out narrowly in a slick mile rate of 1.54.4 at Shepparton last outing. She is capable of going one better against this class. DALLAS MIKI (5) is a strong pacer and was able to bounce back into winning form with a big performance at Charlton on Monday. He has several fast beginners drawn on his inside but is sure to make his presence felt. ALWAYS ON SAFARI (7) is shooting for four straight victories but he is meeting a field of more depth this evening and he is likely to be shuffled back on the markers from his awkward draw. HOOKLINEANDSINKER (4) led throughout when a convincing winner at Gawler last outing. He is worth an investment from his good draw.

BACK: LILSTREPO (8) – 1 unit win

SELECTIONS: LILSTREPO (8), DALLAS MIKI (5), ALWAYS ON SAFARI (7), HOOKLINEANDSINKER (4)

 

Race 8:

OVERVIEW: RED ROBBER (1) is yet to be placed in 16 starts to date but he joins trainer Alex Ashwood and he strikes a suitable assignment at his Mildura debut so an improved showing is expected. THE NINJA (5) gave the leader She’s Magical a big start when he worked into a distant second at his latest Mildura performance. He was runner up again at Globe Derby on Monday and should be competitive again here. COLMAN SIGN (7) has gait issues but he ran a cracking race after setting the speed when second in a mile rate of 1.55.1 at Swan Hill on December 16. He has a trailing draw behind RED ROBBER (1) so he can fill a place with an economical trip. BRIEISBETTER (2) is a maiden from 34 starts but she has been placed in three of her past four starts and is worth thought in multiple combinations.

BACK: RED ROBBER (1) – 2 units win

 

SELECTIONS: RED ROBBER (1), THE NINJA (5), COLMAN SIGN (7), BRIEISBETTER (2) 

 

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** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10

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The odds quoted on the fields page are a Goodform computer generated price based on a range of key form factors and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.