Form Analysis by Braden Howlett
Race 1
(5) SHEZALLLOLLIES is a 14 start maiden but ran a much improved race when 3rd last week in good time when was able to hold the front, however I have (3) JUST LIKA DREAM having enough speed to lead and looks to get her chance to break through. (2) SOHO PINA COLADA raced roughly on the first corner when first up in the state in the same race, but was seen making good ground late. Not sure the smaller track suits her here but If did bring her manners, she would take some beating. (4) JUDYSMEMUM is a locally trained first starter from the astute Craig Hayes stable and has trialled nicely enough, whilst (1) VINCENTS RAINBOW and (6) BROADWAY BLING get the favourable pegs draws to run into exotics.
Selections (3) JUST LIKA DREAM, (4) JUDYSMEMUM, (5) SHEZALLLOLLIES, (2) SOHO PINA COLADA
Race 2
An even race which the speed map will depend on if (1) THE GANG is on his best behaviour, which the one time he has drawn barrier 1 he raced rough and broke at Hobart. He was somewhat disappointing last start when resuming from a quick let up, but gets his chance to improve here. (2) FAMILY REASONS could be the beneficiary if the (1) doesn’t behave by crossing to the lead, and would expect improvement on his first up run in 4 months previously when had an easy 3 pegs run, which was run in a very fast time overall. (3) MIKI SANZ and (4) MIKIYOURSOFINE are expected to push forward and race on speed, whilst (6) CEE TEA CHELSEA chances depend heavily on the pole marker performing well. (10) KENYA is the knockout chance if the above horses do go hard early.
Selections (2) FAMILY REASONS, (4) MIKIYOURSOFINE, (3) THE GANG, (10) KENYA
Race 3
(2) ALBERIO races out of class slightly here, but has led the past 6 times he has drawn the front row in a stand start, they might not catch him like last time he raced here 4 starts back. (4) CAMBRO FLASH has had all 8 career starts on King Island thus far in his career, and began quickly from tapes in a trial at Carrick Monday. His trial was okay and trainer Clayton Miller has had some luck with such horses of late. (6) JILLIBY JAY SEA has been racing well without winning in somewhat tougher races than this, whilst (9) MAJOR DAVVIN returned to his old form with a good 2nd last start, and could find himself midfield if he began well off the 20m. (7) CAN FEEL THE FURY could be the improver in what is again another tough race to assess.
Selections (2) ALBERIO, (6) JILLIBY JAY SEA, (9) MAJOR DAVVIN, (7) CAN FEEL THE FURY
Race 4
This stand start is over the shorter distance of 1892m, where (2) ROCK ON PLAYBOY is racing well and looks a likely leader and could take some running down. (5) NOVA BAXTER has been very consistent in her 4 runs back in the state, and could find herself on speed and get her chance, noting she gets In well with the mares claim off the front row. (4) COLBY SANZ has raced from the stand start 61 of his 141 starts in Tasmania which is very rare to see, especially considering his manners haven’t been the best for most of those either, but also looks to land on speed (9) MY WAY is flying and may open favourite, but happy to take those on starting from the back row or 10m slightly in this short race, whilst (1) ASHANTE QUEEN and (8) JUST FOLLOW ME look some chance from the peg draws.
Selections (2) ROCK ON PLAYBOY, (5) NOVA BAXTER, (9) MY WAY, (4) COLBY SANZ
Race 5
(4) SMOOTH DEAL loves the stand start at Burnie, and looks a good chance to find the front. However he’s a 43 rater horse in a 50+ race, and most horses in this race have been racing much stronger horses. (1) ARMA ROLLING STONE has been very good of late, and if was to begin safely and show his customary toughness, he may be too strong. The trio of (6) SAPPHIRE GAMBLER, (7) DENNY and (8) ANDAMAN BAY bring the strongest form into the race, and the one who gets the right run will take some holding out, whilst (2) ORAVOIR and (5) PERFECT CUT can run into exotics from the front row draw.
Selections (8) ANDAMAN BAY, (1) ARMA ROLLING STONE, (3) SMOOTH DEAL, (6) SAPPHIRE GAMBLER
Race 6
(3) RANIERI is a good beginner from the tapes, and has a great record at the track. His main danger of finding the lead looks to be (2) IM QUITE AMERICAN, who has begun like a rocket of late. These two look the early leaders, but will both be heading for the pegs and should have every chance either way they sit in the run. The two class horses of the field are the Langley stablemates off 20m in (9) GOODTIME OSCAR and (10) TWILIGHT BEACH, who will be hoping some gaps appear in the field early and are able to position somewhere midfield which would increase their chances. (6) JADEZ drops back from a stronger mares race where she wasn’t disgraced, and with any luck and some hillier magic, she could be the one finding gaps down the back straight and looming to win.
Selections (3) RANIERI, (2) IM QUITE AMERICAN, (6) JADEZ, (10) TWILIGHT BEACH
Race 7
The (1) ROYAL CADENCE is yet to really draw a gate since arriving in Tassie 6 months ago, but gets the plum draw around Burnie here. Off her Victorian form, she does have sufficient gate speed to hold, or take a sit on (2) HORRIE O’TARA if Brodie Davis did get aggressive early. They look the top picks in the race if they don’t bring each other undone, where (7) SOULWRITER AND (6) LAID BACK KENNY will be having a soft run behind them if they did overdo it. The emergency (3) SHALLOW BEACH is first up in the state for trainer Dylan Ford and brings somewhat moderate form, but such horses have performed well quickly in the past when arriving in the state. (4) SWEET AMOUR will most likely work forward to the death, and drops back slightly in class to what she’s been racing against.
Selections (1) ROYAL CADENCE, (2) HORRIE O’TARA, (7) SOULWRITER, (4) SWEET AMOUR
Race 8
There is a fair bit of class difference in the 0-3 Lifetime wins race, with trainers of maidens happy to draw a good gate round the 609m tight circuit. In saying that, im happy to back the better horses from the back row, especially over the 2180m. (7) FAR LEFT FLETCH has continued to improve and race well since his maiden win. He may have to lead the 3 wide line here but will be hard to run past. Can ignore (9) ROLLWITHARTY past 2 starts when drawn wide and ended up at the back of field on the pegs, he should have every chance following the (7) here, whilst (10) TULLACH GIRL will also be following the above horses home and will be running home strong. (4) OUTBACK ROCK looks the best chance of the front row but may have to do some work to get across those inside.
Selections (7) FAR LEFT FLETCH, (9) ROLLWITHARTY, (10) TULLAH GIRL, (4) OUTBACK ROCK
