Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: MAC BON (5) is a Luke McCarthy trained gelding that won last season’s Breeders Crown Final and recoded a sizzling mile of 1.50.3 at a Menangle victory two starts ago. He is a fast beginner and should take beating under these conditions. The Mildura pacer MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (8) is not to be underestimated. He ran a brave second in the South Australian Derby and he has posted several mile rates of sub 1.55 on the Mildura circuit this season so a bold showing is expected. SOHO THE REAL DEAL (3) worked forward from the second line to eventually find the lead and went down fighting when third in the Super Series Silver event. He is likely to find the lead in the early stages of this event and should be competitive again. IM ALL BUSINESS (6) has been performing extremely well in South Australia with six straight victories followed by a third at Globe Derby last week, where he worked hard in the run. This race is tougher but he is racing too well to dismiss.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely early leader), 5,6
SELECTIONS: MAC BON (5), MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (8), SOHO THE REAL DEAL (3), IM ALL BUSINESS (6)
RATINGS: 5,8/ 3/ 6/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 5,8/ 3,5,8/ 3,4,5,6,8 (Cost $12)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: It is an open race with several winning chances. AUCKLAND RED (12) looked to be travelling really well on the home turn but was severely checked and lost his chance when resuming then followed with a close third behind Keayang Santiago at Geelong. He prefers to race close to the speed so being drawn on the second line is a disadvantage but he is racing too well to dismiss. ASMILEANDAWINX (13) is another horse that prefers to race close to the speed and is drawn poorly but appears to be well graded. She made a mid-race move before gaining cover when she won at Bendigo two starts ago so she is worth an investment. JILLIBY SELWOOD (10) has only been placed once in 34 starts for the season but he will appreciate a significant drop back in class for this assignment and his latest fourth was encouraging. ILLAWONG PHOENIX (7) has been racing extremely well having been placed in nine of her past eleven starts (5 wins). She is a tough mare and should make her presence felt.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible leader), 3,7
SELECTIONS: AUCKLAND RED (12), ASMILEANDAWINX (13), JILLIBY SELWOOD (10), ILLAWONG PHOENIX (7)
RATINGS: 12,13/ 7,10/ 4,6/ 3/ FIELD
SUGGESTED BET: AUCKLAND RED (12) each way
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: LUVTOBEUPTOME (1) performed admirably throughout the Super Series having won in the fastest heat followed by a third in the semi-final and a brave second in the Final. He is ideally drawn and looms as one of the leading chances again. LOUCASSO (7) is an outstanding colt that has won five of his seven starts to date. He hasn’t raced since winning the Protostar at Albion Park in July but he impressed at a recent Ballarat trial victory and his class with take him a long way. CARDIGAN DAN (2) seems to grow a leg when he is able to lead with all of his three wins being in the front running role and all of his four unplaced efforts being when he has raced with a trail. He bounced back to winning form with a dominant display at Bendigo and he is drawn to suit his racing pattern. EYENEEDTHAT (6), MISTER AMERICANO (8) and ROMEO (9) are all worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,3,7
SELECTIONS: LUVTOBEUPTOME (1), LOUCASSO (7), CARDIGAN DAN (2), MISTER AMERICANO (8)
RATINGS: 1,7/ 2/ 6,8/ 9/ 3
SUGGESTED BET: LUVTOBEUPTOME (1) each way
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: KEAYANG GYPSY (6) has competed in all different types of classes recently including free for all events so she must be respected. She commenced from the handicap of 30m and demolished her rivals when a big winner at Horsham last week. TE AMO (3) was working up to a prominent position when he broke stride at the 1300m and lost his chance at Bendigo last outing. His two efforts prior were strong and he must be rated highly from his good draw. LEANNE LEEANN (4) is working back into some form and attempted to sustain a long run when second at Ballarat last week. This race is no harder and she is worth thought again. The interesting runner is the Mildura trotter CONNIES PRESIDENT (1). She has been racing against the pacers recently and her last run against the trotters was a reasonable fifth in the Swan Hill Cup so she cannot be left out of calculations.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 4,5
SELECTIONS: KEAYANG GYPSY (6), TE AMO (3), LEANNE LEEANN (4), CONNIES PRESIDENT (1)
RATINGS: 6/ 3/ 1,4/ 7,8/ FIELD
SUGGESTED BET: KEAYANG GYPSY (6) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: LET HER ROLL (5) pushed forward to find the lead, ran along at a genuine tempo and dashed well clear of her rivals when a dominant winner of the South Australian Oaks last week. She should have gained a lot of confidence out of that performance and will prove hard to beat again. SMIRKIN SERENE (1) is a New South Wales trained filly that has won five of her eight starts to date including the Breeders Challenge Blue Final. She competed at Group 1 level last outing and didn’t run a bad race after enduring a tough run throughout so she should be very competitive from the pole position. SURFE LA MER (3) led out then took cover when she won a semi-final of the Super Series then she had no luck in the Final after commencing from the outside of the second line. She is a talented filly with a good record and she looms as one of the leading chances. MY LITTLE BO (7) is poorly drawn but should run her usual honest race and LET’S GO LORNA (8) has winning claims if she can muster enough acceleration to follow through behind SMIRKIN SERENE (1) at the start.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 3,5
SELECTIONS: LET HER ROLL (5), SMIRKIN SERENE (1), SURFE LA MER (3), MY LITTLE BO (7)
RATINGS: 5/ 1,3/ 7,8/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: LET HER ROLL (5) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: It is a rematch between the two top fillies SOHO AMERICANO (1) and BEACH DIAMOND (8). SOHO AMERICANO (1) won the Victoria Oaks and BEACH DIAMOND (8) turned the tables with a dazzling display in the Super Series Final. The barrier favours SOHO AMERICANO (1) and driving tactics will be a key with BEACH DIAMOND (8) being drawn on the second line so SOHO AMERICANO (1) gets the nod. PEACE OUT (2) did very well throughout the Super Series having been placed in both the semi-final and the Final. She is drawn to gain a trail just behind the leaders and is a definite place chance again. GOLDEN SHOOZ (4) tried to sustain a long run from last when a handy third at Geelong last outing. She won a heat of the Victoria Oaks on October 11 so she has the ability to mix it with this class.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 4,5
SELECTIONS: SOHO AMERICANO (1), BEACH DIAMOND (8), PEACE OUT (2), GOLDEN SHOOZ (4)
RATINGS: 1,8/ 2/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: First Four 1,8/ 1,8/ 2,4,9/ 2,4,9 (Cost $12)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: It is a tough race to assess with several different form lines from three different States. WILLOWS GIRL (8) was resuming since April when she finished off in sizzling final sectionals and was a narrow second behind Pre Eminant in the Tatlow Stakes. She should have benefited from that outing and is worth following. ONE MILLIE (2) has joined trainer Emma Stewart since a second in the Golden Nursery Pace Final at Globe Derby, where she attempted to lead throughout. She is ideally drawn and should give another bold showing. CAPTURE OUR HEART (3) hasn’t raced since a victory at Wagga in June. She finished ahead of WILLOWS GIRL (8) when fourth in the Bathurst Gold Tiara, finished second in the Pink Bonnet at Menangle and has won a trial at Wagga recently so she must be respected. HILLTOP STAR (5) was wide for most of the final circuit before switching back to the inner on the home turn and finishing off fast for an eye-catching third at Bendigo last outing. She is worth thought along with SWEET IRISH LOCH (7), which put in some very tidy performances during the Super Series.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,3,4
SELECTIONS: WILLOWS GIRL (8), OUR MILLIE (2), CAPTURE OUR HEART (3), HILLTOP STAR (5)
RATINGS: 8/ 2,3/ 5,7/ 1,4/ 6
SUGGESTED BET: WILLOWS GIRL (8) each way
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: CAPTAIN PERFECT (4) finished unplaced in the Super Series Final but he was forced to work very hard in a sensational mile rate of 1.52.8 so he had excuses. There is a good chance he will find the lead fairly comfortably here and he led throughout to win a semi-final of the Super Series two starts ago so he should prove very hard to beat. ITS CONFIDENTIAL (3) finished brilliantly through the middle to win the Super Series Final. He was also placed in the Victoria Derby so his overall form is strong and he has the speed to test this field again. VINEY (1) probably produced a career best performance when second in a semi-final of the Super Series, where he led out then took cover behind CAPTAIN PERFECT (4) and chased hard at the end. He drew on the outside of the second line when he finished down the track in the Final and is much better placed from the pole position here. NEW SHUFFLE (2) led throughout from the pole position to win a semi-final of the Super Series then followed with a sixth in the Final. He is racing in great form and is worth thought again.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible leader), 1,2,3
SELECTIONS: CAPTAIN PERFECT (4), ITS CONFIDENTIAL (3), VINEY (1), NEW SHUFFLE (2)
RATINGS: 4/ 3/ 1,2
SUGGESTED BET: First Four 3,4/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,2,3,4 (Cost $12)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: ARRHYTHMIA (6) remains undefeated in seven starts to date and clearly outpointed one of her main rivals PRE EMINANT (1) in both the semi-final and the Final of the Super Series over the past few weeks. She has done an outstanding job at her initial season of racing and will prove very hard to beat again. DEGARMEA TEALE (2) is still learning but has been impressive at her four starts to date. She raced very greenly in the front running role at her past two attempts at Menangle but was still very competitive so she must be rated highly. PRE EMINANT (1) had her chance to beat ARRHYTHMIA (6) in both the semi-final and the Final of the Super Series but she still performed extremely well and is a strong Quinella chance again. BETTOR BEACH (5) is a nicely bred first starter for the Emma Stewart stable, which was very impressive at a recent Ballarat trial victory. She is facing some of the best fillies in Australia at her debut performance so it is a tough ask but she does have a promising future.
EARLY SPEED: 6 (possible leader), 1,2
SELECTIONS: ARRHYTHMIA (6), DEGARMEA TEALE (2), PRE EMINANT (1), BETTOR BEACH (5)
RATINGS: 6/ 1,2/ 5/ 7
SUGGESTED BET: ARRHYTHMIA (6) to win
