History Says: Cranbourne Cup and Bill Collins Mile

07 December 2010
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Smoken Up (right) and Melpark Major had contrasting fortunes at the barrier draw for Saturday night's Cranbourne Cup

Smoken Up (right) and Melpark Major had contrasting fortunes at the barrier draw for Saturday night's Cranbourne Cup

Decron Cranbourne Cup

Tuesday morning’s barrier draw has thrown open Saturday night’s inaugural Group 1 Decron Cranbourne Cup and history suggests who the punters settle on as favourite will be significant.
Punters have been on the money in recent years with the horse at the head of the betting making a trip to the winner’s stall in four of the past five years.
Robin Hood saluted at $1.50 in 2005, Sting Lika Bee was even money in 2007, Mister Swinger got the job done at $2.60 two years ago, while Ohoka Nevada dead-heated with $4.80 second elect Bettors Strike when the $3 favourite last year.
Last-start Miracle Mile hero Smoken Up, 2009 Inter Dominion champion Mr Feelgood or boom five-year-old Villagem looked like fighting out favouritism prior to the draw but all came up with tricky alleys in the 2555-metre event.
Smoken Up is outside the back row in the 12-horse event to be run at 10.05pm, Villagem will start to his immediate left with Mr Feelgood potentially awkwardly placed inside the back row. The 2009 BIG6 Hunter Cup winner follows out sit-sprinter Cincinnati Kid, who is likely to take a sit.
Western Australian raider Im Themightyquinn and former Victorian Horse of the Year Melpark Major could now challenge for favouritism after drawing gates five and six respectively.
That pair are last-start winners and four times since the Cranbourne Cup moved to December in 2003, when it reverted to a mobile and was upgraded to Group 2 status, the winner been triumphant at their final Cranbourne Cup lead-up.
Smoken Up and The Gunstar (barrier nine), a scratching from last week’s Popular Alm Free-For-All after winning at Menangle on Miracle Mile night, are the only other last-start winners in this year’s race.
Underlining the Cranbourne Cup status as a form horse’s race is the fact the other winners since 2003 have come off a minor placing.
Popular Alm FFA placegetters Karlsruhe (three) and Bold Cruiser (four) are backing up, while Bondy’s (10) last appearance produced a second to Monkey King in the New Zealand FFA.
Karlsruhe, who ran third behind Ohoka Nevada and Bettors Strike last year, will be looking to emulate The Warp Drive and Sting Lika Bee, who filled minor placings before returning to taste Cranbourne Cup success.

Aldebaran Park Bill Collins Trotters Mile
Down Under Muscles has drawn to end Sundons Gift’s four-race winning streak in Saturday night’s Aldebaran Park Bill Collins Trotters Mile.
That’s what history suggests in light of Tuesday morning’s barrier allocation for the $60,000 Group 1, which will be run for the first time at Cranbourne.
The Chris Alford-trained son of Muscles Yankee came up with barrier two – clearly the most successful starting position in the history of Australia’s premier short-course trot.
Run at Melton’s Tabcorp Park last year having previously been run at Moonee Valley, five of the 15 winners of the race have started from one off the pegs on the front line.
Barrier four is the next most successful with three wins, while dual Inter Dominion winner Sundons Gift’s quest for his first Bill Collins crown will be carried out from gate six, which has provided one winner – Take A Moment in 2003.
What fans of the headline pair will be hoping is that the move to Cranbourne and the Bill Collins swapping places with the Australian Trotting Grand Prix – which had been run before the Bill Collins in recent years – makes life easier for punters.
None of the past four Bill Collins winners have placed their previous run and Sundons Gift and Down Under Muscles fought out the Group 1 New South Wales Trotters Mile at their previous outing.
The Bill Collins also hasn’t been a great race for favourites. Before Sundons Gift’s stablemate Skyvalley won at $1.50 last year, a favourite hadn’t won since Take A Moment in 2003.
If there is to be an upset, perhaps Kyvalley Mac, Armed Guard or La Mosca could be the one to provide it.
They are the seven-year-olds in this year’s race and horses of that vintage have been successful at every second edition since Lyell Creek won the first edition in 2001, when the race was run in the first half of the year.
Take A Moment was seven when he won his second Bill Collins, while Sammy Do Good (2004), Glenbogle (2006) and Will Trapper (2008) are the other seven-year-olds to salute in that sequence.

 

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